Yep, that's what His Holiness thinks, and the Mexican government apparently wants the whole world to know it. So it started a diplomatic row with the Vatican, generating headlines the world over.
It is part of a pattern. This is how the Mexican state reacts to criticisms, especially of the growing fusion between organized crime, on the one hand, and the police, prosecutors and armed forces that supposedly fight organized crime, on the other.
The Mexican government did it last November when Latin America's most admired statesman, Uruguayan President José Mujica, said that, from afar, Mexico looked like a failed state.
The Mexican foreign ministry called in Uruguay's ambassador, demanding a retraction, and thereby creating a diplomatic incident that guaranteed headlines all over the world highlighting what Mujica had said.... and generating a pretty good ditty from Mexico's leading practitioner of musical journalism, Guillermo Zapata, better known as El Caudillo del Son.
Now they're going after Pope Francis, who said in what was clearly a private email to a friend ("Say hello to your mother and please don't forget to pray for me ...") that he hoped Argentina could avoid "Mexicanization."
"I was talking to some Mexican Bishops and things there are a terror," the pontiff said. ("Estuve hablando con algunos obispos mexicanos y la cosa es de terror.")
The Pope's pal published it on a blog (the fact that the guy is running for Mayor of Buenos Aires may have something to do with it), and once again, Mexico's foreign ministry has taken umbrage, dispatching bullying communiques that, of course, elicited the required formal apology ... and the perfectly foreseeable consequence that hundreds of millions of people are hearing the truth about what has happened to Mexico thanks to its politicians enlisting the country as a soldier in the U.S. "war on drugs."
And they are hearing this truth from perhaps the only living Latin American leader held in even higher regard than Uruguay's philosopher-president: Pope Francis.
In the United States, some call this the Streisand Effect, a term coined by Mike Masnick, editor of Techdirt, when Barbara Streisand's efforts to suppress pictures of her beachfront mansion only drew more attention to them.
Perhaps it should be renamed the Official Mexican Response effect. Almost three weeks ago, the Argentine Forensic Anthropology Team (EAAF) issued a statement after Mexican Attorney general Jesus Murillo Karam held a press conference to declare the case of the 43 missing Ayotzinapa students all-but-officially closed saying there was scientific certainty the students had been killed by drug traffickers (and not -- oh happy coincidence! -- the Mexican government) at the orders of a bad apple mayor.
The Argentine Forensic Anthropology Team, which had been repeatedly citerd by Murillo Karam over the months to bolster the credibility of his office's investigation, explained why they did not share the Attorney General's certainty, including that they had not been present when the (alleged) remains of the students were recovered from a river, that human remains clearly not belonging to the students (a partial denture) had been recovered from the site where the students were allegedly murdered and cremated, and that satellite pictures confirm that major fires had occurred at the site for years before last September's mass kidnapping, so citing evidence of a big fire there as the definitive proof of the cremation story was hardly convincing.
The EAAF is a non-profit scientific organization. It was created three decades ago at the urging of the Grandmothers of the Plaza de Mayo, the movement of relatives of the disappeared during Argentina's "dirty war" from the mid-1970s into the early 1980's, and CONADEP, the official National Commission on the Disappearance of Persons, created after the military dictatorship surrendered power.
It works with experts from all over the world at the service of the families of victims of forced disappearances to investigate those events and --if possible-- identify the remains.
For three decades they have been the gold standard in forensic anthropology, initially trained by Dr. Eric Snow, who was one of the founders and most respected experts on a world scale in this discipline.
At the insistence of the parents of the 43 students from the Ayotzinapa teacher's college who were disappeared last September, the Mexican government was forced to accept the participation of this team of international experts in the investigation.
And how did the Mexican attorney general's office react to the EAAF statement demurring from its conclusions?
By doubling down on its effort to close the case, saying the EAAF experts weren't independent experts but only part of the official investigation, that the EAAF lacked competence in fields like ballistics and that's why they were excluded from various searches, and that since they had no independent authority, their verification of the chain of custody of the recovered human remains that supposedly had been dumped into a river was of no significance, and so on.
That last point is a good example of the noty just of the mendacity but also the stupidity of the Mexican government. In its statement, the EAAF stuck simply to the facts. But the point they hammered home was that the one and only bone fragment that could be identified on the basis of DNA tests as belonging to a students was unique: it was much larger than any other fragment and had not burned. The EAAF experts told the Aristegui Noticias web site that "it was like if you had a table of bananas... and Alexander [Mora's] sample was an apple."
The expert said no explanation could be ascertained: "Perhaps that part of the body was protected from the fire, for some reason that has not been determined, but it could have been something else."
Remember, the government's story is the 43 students were murdered and their remains incinerated in a funeral pyre made up of a bed of stones, topped by tires and then firewood. The pyre burned for 15 hours and reached temperatures of 1,600 degrees centigrade, almost 3,000 degrees Farenheit. The day after, the remains of the students were gathered up in six black plastic trash bags and dumped into a river.
But scientists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico say flat out this is impossible. They calculate that if only tires had been used for the cremation, at least 995 would have been required. If only firewood, some 33 tons. The tires would have left a pool of 2.5 tons of molten metal from the steel belting; ashes from a firewood-only pyre (mixed with bone fragments) would have weighed a third of a ton, about 120 lbs per plastic garbage bag.
"The hypothesis that [the students] were cremated at the Cocula dump can find no support in natural physical or chemical events," said Dr. Jorge Montomayor, one of the scientists.
Not to mention the practical difficulties, like finding someone to get you tons of firewood and hundreds of tires on a rainy Friday night in Mexico and deliver them miles from the nearest paved road down a dirt track to the top of a ravine in such a way as to create a funeral pyre 50 yards down from there to the bottom of an incline of up to 40 degrees.
And then having perhaps eight, ten or 12 guys transport 43 students to the top of the ravine, executing them, and then throwing their bodies onto the funeral pyre at the bottom without leaving as much as a trace of evidence susceptible to DNA testing ... apart from one (1) bone fragment supposedly found miles away from there in a garbage bag in a river.
But ignoring all that, and granting that what happened is what the government claims, the obvious, blatant suspicion that needs to be refuted about this one bone fragment is that it was planted. That is why the EAAF insists on saying they do not vouch for its discovery or handling. They're saying, "Why, look at that! Such a nice elephant, and in this room, what an astonishing coincidence...."
The response of the government could and should have been to show the video recordings and photographs of the discovery and opening of the bag containing this bone fragment. The government has already shown bits and pieces of recordings and some photographs of this search. The ONLY way for there to be no recordings of photographs of the key moments in the discovery of this evidence is for the camera operators to have been ordered not to shoot ... or for the records to have been erased or made to disappear.
So what is really galling is that the government doesn't even pretend to present a convincing case. They are telling the parents, and the world: "Sure, we killed the students. So what?"
A few days after the EAAF statement, the Mexican authorities were at it again. They refused to let the commission in charge of overseeing implementation of the U.N treaty on forced disappearances take up specific cases like that of the 43 Ayotzinapa students, but nevertheless, the Committee's statement on the Mexican government's failure to live up to its treaty obligations was scathing.
The U.N. body noted that Mexico hadn't even complied with the most simple, initial step: creating a master list of all persons reported as disappeared. The Mexican government had said that since December 2006, there had been 23,000 plus disappearances, some 10,000, give or take, under the current administration that took office at the end of 2012.
Again, the government --this time represented jointly by the Attorney General and Ministry of Foreign Relations-- responded as the aggrieved party, How could the U.N. say something as nasty as that we don't even know how many disappeared there are?
Just think about the pattern. Latin America's most revered statesman. The Pope. The leading experts on a world scale in forensic anthropology. The U.S. commission set up by the treaty against disappearances --which Mexico has ratified-- to help countries live up to treaty obligations.
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Friday, January 23, 2015
Condolences for dead prosecutor who accused Argentine president should be sent to the White House
There is a tremendous press campaign against the government of Argentina over the violent death of a prosecutor who was filing charges against the country's president.
But an important fact missing from the press coverage is that the Wikileaks cables from four years ago show that Alberto Nisman, the prosecutor in the investigation of the 1994 terrorist bombing of AMIA, the Argentine-Israel Mutual Association, in fact reported to and took instructions from the U.S. embassy. And the way the U.S. press is covering this should tell any seasoned reporter that the United States is still very much involved in what is happening.
Ten days ago, in the middle of Argentina's month-long January judicial recess, prosecutor Nisman tweeted that he was breaking off a vacation in Europe, and dashing back to Buenos Aires, and the very next morning after landing submitted a 289-page writ calling for an investigation of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her foreign minister for masterminding a conspiracy to cover up the alleged participation of several Iranian officials in the AMIA bombing.
Nisman went on cable channels and radio shows making all sorts of charges and claiming he could not make his written complaint public because it contained the names and other details of two members of the Argentine intelligence service who played central roles in the alleged back-channel negotiations with Iran.
But the essence of the case is that an Iran-Argentina agreement providing a mechanism for Iranians accused in the bombing to be questioned under oath was part of a deal under which Argentina would withdraw the international arrest warrants against the Iranians, and in exchange Iran would accept Argentine wheat in payment for oil.
Then on Sunday night, hours before he was to testify before Congress, Nisman was found dead, a .22 caliber pistol and shell casing by his side. The police and coroner's initial conclusion of suicide was met with universal skepticism, including in an Internet post by the president on Monday.
Quickly it became clear that the idea that two members of Argentine Intelligence were go-betweens in back channel negotiations was not true because neither one was now or had ever been in the intelligence service. In fact one of them was the target of an influence-peddling criminal inquiry for falsely claiming to be an intelligence operative.
Thus, with the supposed security issues cleared away, on Tuesday night, 48 hours after Nisman had been found dead, the Supreme Court published Nisman's writ on its web site. The English-language Buenos Aires Herald, which is generally quite cool to the current administration, proclaimed on its Wednesday front page: "Nothing New: Nisman's Report fails to fan the flames of conspiracy."
Eugenio Zaffaroni, one of the most renowned experts on criminal law in Latin America, author of three dozen books, hundreds of articles and recipient of more than 30 honorary degrees, who just retired from the Argentine Supreme Court, said that, even taking as true everything Nisman had claimed, the prosecutor failed to allege a crime punishable by law.
Nisman's central claim is that the government tried (but failed) to get Interpol to drop its "Red Notices" (similar to an arrest warrant) for the indicted Iranians. Zaffaroni says even if true this is simply not a crime, and added that he believed that Nisman was one more victim of the AMIA case, and had been fed false information to mislead him.
(A couple of years ago, Nisman had explained to a journalist reporting on the Wikileaks cables that the a top intelligence officer --who had been dismissed days before Nisman made public his accusations against the president--, had been a central source in his investigations and was the conduit of information from the CIA and the Israeli Mossad.)
Also, even if requesting the withdrawal of the Red Notices had been a crime, it never happened. After Nisman went public with his claim, the head of the Interpol for fifteen years until last November, Ronald Noble, responded with an email to the Argentine foreign minister. Noble insisted that precisely the opposite had been the case. The Argentine government argued that the Red Notices be kept in effect despite the agreement between Argentina and Iran for a mechanism to take statements from the accused Iranians in their country. The Argentine foreign minister told Interpol that the Argentine judge in the case, under whose authority Nisman himself had prepared the original Red Notice requests, would be the one to ask for the notices to be lifted, should that become appropriate.
It would seem Nisman never checked with the head of Interpol about the supposed effort to dismiss the Notices ... which is strange, given that Nisman had had extensive dealings with Interpol on those very notices.
From the Wikileaks cables [my comments in brackets]:
Experienced U.S.-based journalists who follow Latin America know that even huge news events in our closest neighbors rarely get the attention they deserve. Such is the case of the Ayotzinapa massacre in Mexico, the police ambush of busloads of students from that teacher's college last September 26 in Iguala, a small city 130 miles north from Acapulco. Six people died in the attack; 25 were wounded and 43 kidnapped by police and not seen since.
This mass forced disappearance was the straw that broke the Camel's back. There has been wave after wave of protests, and a collapse in confidence not just in the current administration, but the country's politicians and political institutions in general. It is, as we in the news biz say, a great story: but it has been largely ignored in the U.S. English language press.
But the Argentina story isn't being ignored. And I can explain that very easily. Generally what the U.S. media covers is very much influenced by cues from the State Department and U.S. embassies abroad. No, the journalists don't take "orders," not usually, but they travel in the same circles as government officials, depend on them and are influenced by them. The same is true of their editors back home, especially the top ones.
In the Argentine case, there is a glaring blooper you will find in most of the U.S. coverage that is very easy to verify. It is the claim that President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner initially said Nisman's death was a suicide, and then reversed herself. Except it isn't true: she initially questioned whether it was really a suicide, that despite the investigators initiaslly saying suicide is what it looked like. Anyone who can read Spanish can readily verify it for themselves
How does a mistake like that not just get started, but get repeated in post after article after TV report? It comes from someone at the U.S. embassy, who may have picked it up from a local pro-American politician. And it isn't even necessarily a conscious fabrication, they just see what they want to see because a lot of these state department guys don't even speak the host country language very well, making it easier for them to misinterpret what they read. Ditto for the reporters.
I saw this time and again up close in the years I spent covering the civil wars in Central America in the 1980s and then from afar in two decades at CNN. But American diplomats don't just randomly focus on some story to highlight to reporters. Their job is to promote U.S. interests and foreign policy objectives.
Which tells me the United States government has been very much involved in these events. Just exactly how or why we can't be sure, but --from the tone and emphasis in the stories-- we can be certain it wasn't on the side of the Argentine president.
But an important fact missing from the press coverage is that the Wikileaks cables from four years ago show that Alberto Nisman, the prosecutor in the investigation of the 1994 terrorist bombing of AMIA, the Argentine-Israel Mutual Association, in fact reported to and took instructions from the U.S. embassy. And the way the U.S. press is covering this should tell any seasoned reporter that the United States is still very much involved in what is happening.
Ten days ago, in the middle of Argentina's month-long January judicial recess, prosecutor Nisman tweeted that he was breaking off a vacation in Europe, and dashing back to Buenos Aires, and the very next morning after landing submitted a 289-page writ calling for an investigation of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her foreign minister for masterminding a conspiracy to cover up the alleged participation of several Iranian officials in the AMIA bombing.
Nisman went on cable channels and radio shows making all sorts of charges and claiming he could not make his written complaint public because it contained the names and other details of two members of the Argentine intelligence service who played central roles in the alleged back-channel negotiations with Iran.
But the essence of the case is that an Iran-Argentina agreement providing a mechanism for Iranians accused in the bombing to be questioned under oath was part of a deal under which Argentina would withdraw the international arrest warrants against the Iranians, and in exchange Iran would accept Argentine wheat in payment for oil.
Then on Sunday night, hours before he was to testify before Congress, Nisman was found dead, a .22 caliber pistol and shell casing by his side. The police and coroner's initial conclusion of suicide was met with universal skepticism, including in an Internet post by the president on Monday.
Quickly it became clear that the idea that two members of Argentine Intelligence were go-betweens in back channel negotiations was not true because neither one was now or had ever been in the intelligence service. In fact one of them was the target of an influence-peddling criminal inquiry for falsely claiming to be an intelligence operative.
Thus, with the supposed security issues cleared away, on Tuesday night, 48 hours after Nisman had been found dead, the Supreme Court published Nisman's writ on its web site. The English-language Buenos Aires Herald, which is generally quite cool to the current administration, proclaimed on its Wednesday front page: "Nothing New: Nisman's Report fails to fan the flames of conspiracy."
Eugenio Zaffaroni, one of the most renowned experts on criminal law in Latin America, author of three dozen books, hundreds of articles and recipient of more than 30 honorary degrees, who just retired from the Argentine Supreme Court, said that, even taking as true everything Nisman had claimed, the prosecutor failed to allege a crime punishable by law.
Nisman's central claim is that the government tried (but failed) to get Interpol to drop its "Red Notices" (similar to an arrest warrant) for the indicted Iranians. Zaffaroni says even if true this is simply not a crime, and added that he believed that Nisman was one more victim of the AMIA case, and had been fed false information to mislead him.
(A couple of years ago, Nisman had explained to a journalist reporting on the Wikileaks cables that the a top intelligence officer --who had been dismissed days before Nisman made public his accusations against the president--, had been a central source in his investigations and was the conduit of information from the CIA and the Israeli Mossad.)
Also, even if requesting the withdrawal of the Red Notices had been a crime, it never happened. After Nisman went public with his claim, the head of the Interpol for fifteen years until last November, Ronald Noble, responded with an email to the Argentine foreign minister. Noble insisted that precisely the opposite had been the case. The Argentine government argued that the Red Notices be kept in effect despite the agreement between Argentina and Iran for a mechanism to take statements from the accused Iranians in their country. The Argentine foreign minister told Interpol that the Argentine judge in the case, under whose authority Nisman himself had prepared the original Red Notice requests, would be the one to ask for the notices to be lifted, should that become appropriate.
It would seem Nisman never checked with the head of Interpol about the supposed effort to dismiss the Notices ... which is strange, given that Nisman had had extensive dealings with Interpol on those very notices.
From the Wikileaks cables [my comments in brackets]:
1. (C/NF) [Confidential/No Foreign] LEGATT [Legal Attaché] and the Department of Justice's Office of International Affairs (OIA) have reviewed the GOA's [Goverment of Argentina's] revised application for Interpol arrest warrants ("Red Notices"), which AMIA Special Prosecutor Alberto Nisman gave to LEGATT on January 17. LEGATT advises that the 9-page application is much improved over the original 2-page application submitted on November 15, 2006. On January 19, USDOJ/OIA advised that three of the nine needed improvement, including the warrants for former Iranian Ambassador to Argentina Hadi Soleimanpour, former Iranian diplomat Ahmad Reza Aghari or Mohsen Randjbaran, and Hezbollah leader Imad Fayez Moughnieh. OIA also indicated that most of the explanations for the nine indicted suspects contained statements that were presumptuous conclusions of guilt. OIA recommends that these statements should be modified to indicate that they are attributed to witnesses, records, surveillances, or other types of evidence uncovered in the investigation.Increasingly, suspicion is focusing on the spy, Antonio Stiusso. But I think Stiusso, if involved, was still only one piece of a larger operation.
2. (C/NF) LEGATT relayed OIA's observations and recommendations to Nisman, who was appreciative of Embassy and Washington's support. Nisman stated that he would edit the application to incorporate OIA's comments by expanding on some of the information that would further clarify the evidence the GOA has to support the allegations. Nisman, two of his deputies, and Ambassador Gonzales depart for France on January 19 at 11pm. Alejandro DiNizo, Chief of Argentina's Interpol office departs on January 20 at 2pm. WAYNE [Emphasis added]
Experienced U.S.-based journalists who follow Latin America know that even huge news events in our closest neighbors rarely get the attention they deserve. Such is the case of the Ayotzinapa massacre in Mexico, the police ambush of busloads of students from that teacher's college last September 26 in Iguala, a small city 130 miles north from Acapulco. Six people died in the attack; 25 were wounded and 43 kidnapped by police and not seen since.
This mass forced disappearance was the straw that broke the Camel's back. There has been wave after wave of protests, and a collapse in confidence not just in the current administration, but the country's politicians and political institutions in general. It is, as we in the news biz say, a great story: but it has been largely ignored in the U.S. English language press.
But the Argentina story isn't being ignored. And I can explain that very easily. Generally what the U.S. media covers is very much influenced by cues from the State Department and U.S. embassies abroad. No, the journalists don't take "orders," not usually, but they travel in the same circles as government officials, depend on them and are influenced by them. The same is true of their editors back home, especially the top ones.
In the Argentine case, there is a glaring blooper you will find in most of the U.S. coverage that is very easy to verify. It is the claim that President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner initially said Nisman's death was a suicide, and then reversed herself. Except it isn't true: she initially questioned whether it was really a suicide, that despite the investigators initiaslly saying suicide is what it looked like. Anyone who can read Spanish can readily verify it for themselves
How does a mistake like that not just get started, but get repeated in post after article after TV report? It comes from someone at the U.S. embassy, who may have picked it up from a local pro-American politician. And it isn't even necessarily a conscious fabrication, they just see what they want to see because a lot of these state department guys don't even speak the host country language very well, making it easier for them to misinterpret what they read. Ditto for the reporters.
I saw this time and again up close in the years I spent covering the civil wars in Central America in the 1980s and then from afar in two decades at CNN. But American diplomats don't just randomly focus on some story to highlight to reporters. Their job is to promote U.S. interests and foreign policy objectives.
Which tells me the United States government has been very much involved in these events. Just exactly how or why we can't be sure, but --from the tone and emphasis in the stories-- we can be certain it wasn't on the side of the Argentine president.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Scientists expose government lies about the missing Mexican students
A study by Mexican scientists shows the government is lying about the kidnapping and presumed murder of 43 students.
On September 26, a large group of students from the Ayotzinapa teachers college were attacked by police in the town of Iguala, state of Guerrero. Six people were killed by the police in the attack; 25 were wounded and 43 others were taken and have not been seen again.
After delaying 10 days after the events before taking over the investigation, Mexican Attorney General Jesus Murillo Karam held a show-and-tell press conference November 7 claiming the crime had been solved.
He presented videotaped testimony from three hitmen from the Guerreros Unidos drug cartel. They claimed the students had been killed and cremated in the municipal dump of the neighboring town of Cocula. A central claim in the presentation was that the bodies had been so thoroughly cremated in a funeral pyre that burned from midnight until the middle of the next afternoon that only one small bone fragment had been found that showed any hope of being identifiable. A week ago, a European lab reported that DNA analysis showed the bone fragment belonged to Alexander Mora, one of the students.
Pictures of the site released by the government are enough to raise questions about the official story. According to Murillo Karam, the fire burned for at least 15 hours at temperatures of up to 1600°C (2900°F). Yet a few weeks later the surrounding vegetation showed no scars from the hellish heat. Adding to the skepticism was the statement a a team of forensic anthropologists from Argentina, that --at the insistence of the parents of the missing students-- the government grudgingly allowed to access much of the investigation. These experts said they had not been allowed to observe the initial search of the Cocula site and could not vouch for the government's claim that the bone fragment identified as belonging to one of the students had been found there.
And now, the report by Mexican scientists shows the official story is simply absurd.
According to the government, wood, tires, plastic, diesel fuel and gasoline were all used to feed the fire.
But the academic study shows that at least 33 tons of firewood would have been needed for the funeral pyre, if only wood had been used. If it had been made solely out of tires, at least 995 would have been needed, and two-and-a-half tons of steel would have been left behind as well as rubber deposits that seeped into the ground. And if gasoline, diesel or fuel oil had been used, hundreds of gallons would have been needed.
Whatever the proportion or mix between the various fuels, they could not have been delivered to and suitably arranged into a funeral pyre in the hour or two between when the students were captured and when, according to the government account, the cremation started. Especially not around midnight at the end of a dirt road that ends in a ravine at the bottom of which the cremation supposedly took place.
Nor are tons of firewood, hundreds of tires or gallons of fuel readily available in rural areas in Mexico on Friday nights, even if they could somehow have been magically delivered and arranged into a funeral pyre for 43 students at the bottom of the ravine.
And even if there was such a cremation, there would have been many more bone fragments, especially from the skulls and hips, than were found.
This adds new dimensions to a central unanswered question about the massacre at Iguala: why?
Why were the students attacked? Why were they forcible disappeared? And why is the central government lying about what actually happened if it is true, as it claims, that this was simply a crime carried out by local authorities affiliated with a (supposedly) left-wing opposition party and the drug cartels?
On September 26, a large group of students from the Ayotzinapa teachers college were attacked by police in the town of Iguala, state of Guerrero. Six people were killed by the police in the attack; 25 were wounded and 43 others were taken and have not been seen again.
After delaying 10 days after the events before taking over the investigation, Mexican Attorney General Jesus Murillo Karam held a show-and-tell press conference November 7 claiming the crime had been solved.
He presented videotaped testimony from three hitmen from the Guerreros Unidos drug cartel. They claimed the students had been killed and cremated in the municipal dump of the neighboring town of Cocula. A central claim in the presentation was that the bodies had been so thoroughly cremated in a funeral pyre that burned from midnight until the middle of the next afternoon that only one small bone fragment had been found that showed any hope of being identifiable. A week ago, a European lab reported that DNA analysis showed the bone fragment belonged to Alexander Mora, one of the students.
Pictures of the site released by the government are enough to raise questions about the official story. According to Murillo Karam, the fire burned for at least 15 hours at temperatures of up to 1600°C (2900°F). Yet a few weeks later the surrounding vegetation showed no scars from the hellish heat. Adding to the skepticism was the statement a a team of forensic anthropologists from Argentina, that --at the insistence of the parents of the missing students-- the government grudgingly allowed to access much of the investigation. These experts said they had not been allowed to observe the initial search of the Cocula site and could not vouch for the government's claim that the bone fragment identified as belonging to one of the students had been found there.
And now, the report by Mexican scientists shows the official story is simply absurd.
According to the government, wood, tires, plastic, diesel fuel and gasoline were all used to feed the fire.
But the academic study shows that at least 33 tons of firewood would have been needed for the funeral pyre, if only wood had been used. If it had been made solely out of tires, at least 995 would have been needed, and two-and-a-half tons of steel would have been left behind as well as rubber deposits that seeped into the ground. And if gasoline, diesel or fuel oil had been used, hundreds of gallons would have been needed.
Whatever the proportion or mix between the various fuels, they could not have been delivered to and suitably arranged into a funeral pyre in the hour or two between when the students were captured and when, according to the government account, the cremation started. Especially not around midnight at the end of a dirt road that ends in a ravine at the bottom of which the cremation supposedly took place.
Nor are tons of firewood, hundreds of tires or gallons of fuel readily available in rural areas in Mexico on Friday nights, even if they could somehow have been magically delivered and arranged into a funeral pyre for 43 students at the bottom of the ravine.
And even if there was such a cremation, there would have been many more bone fragments, especially from the skulls and hips, than were found.
This adds new dimensions to a central unanswered question about the massacre at Iguala: why?
Why were the students attacked? Why were they forcible disappeared? And why is the central government lying about what actually happened if it is true, as it claims, that this was simply a crime carried out by local authorities affiliated with a (supposedly) left-wing opposition party and the drug cartels?
Monday, October 13, 2014
Guerrero: don't forgive, don't forget
That's the "Palacio de Gobierno," the seat of the government in the State of Guerrero, Mexico, in flames late Monday afternoon. Behind these were flames that sear, not the flesh, but the soul.On September 26, cops from the city of Iguala massacred students from a nearby heavily-indigenous rural teacher's college. Six people were killed, dozens wounded, and 43 students were arrested and vanished ... "disappeared."
Also vanished are Iguala's mayor, who told radio interviewers shortly before going on the lam that he knew nothing of the events until reading about it in the newspapers, since he had been at a dance that night; the mayor's wife, honoree at the festivities and sister to four former capos of the Beltrán Leyva cartel and founding leaders of its successor, Guerreros Unidos. Also not to be found were the owners of the main movie theater, the supermarket, the shopping mall, the jewelry store and many other Iguala businesses.
But that is not so surprising once you realize that one name appears time and again on title deeds and incorporation papers: namely and to wit, the name of hizzoner the mayor.
The chief of police is also gone, albeit he is not the same person as the mayor, only an accomplice. Also an accomplice is the governor of the state of Guerrero, who not only is not a fugitive, but refuses to resign his position. The picture above captures the reaction of a broad section of the population to his demural.
The Iguala massacre will go down in history with the Tlatelolco massacre of hundreds of students in 1968 as one of the greatest crimes of Mexico's rulers.
And the country's political class has followed its usual pattern of pretending nothing has happened: President Enrique Peña Nieto said it was a local matter and it took him nine days, until Monday October 6, before he could bring himself to take even a smidgen of responsibility, and that only after mass graves with the charred remains of 28 persons were found. He spoke again on Friday the 10th, two weeks after the massacre and after more clandestine graves were found. “En un Estado de Derecho no cabe la impunidad," he thundered, which means, "under the rule of law, there is no place for impunity."
He did not, however, explain what such idyllic clichés have to do with Mexico, as the mayor of Iguala --his whereabouts still unknown-- nevertheless managed to get a judge to issue an injunction against the mayor being arrested or questioned.
From my perch as co-host of an Atlanta Spanish-language talk radio show with a mostly Mexican audience, watching these events unfold over the past two-and-a-half weeks, has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion. President Peña Nieto seems to think the whole thing can still be papered over with a few phrases promising to punish those responsible, now that his explanations of the division of responsibility between federal and state authorities has failed to satisfy.
But watching the TV news videos of the burning "Government Palace" only keeps pushing through my mind the ending of a song I first heard sometime in high school, nearly a half century ago.
Down on our knees we're begging you please,
We're sorry for the way you were driven.
There's no need to taunt just take what you want,
and we'll make amends, if we're living.
But away from the grounds the flames told the town
that only the dead are forgiven.
As they crumbled inside the ringing of revolution.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Lies, damn lies, and TV election polls
So Atlanta's Channel 11 came out with a new poll in the Georgia gubernatorial and Senate races with a big surprise. According to the detailed "cross-tabs," Georgia Latinos are going for our ultra-corrupt Republican governor and his "pants on fire" lying running mate in the race for U.S. Senator by a 4-to-3 margin.
I've gotta ask: dudes, what have you been smoking?
Because even more surprising than our supposed support for these two anti-Latino bigots is the poll's projection that Latinos, who are less than 1.8% of the registered voters in the state, will be 7% of those that go to the polls in November. Assuming every last Latino voter actually showed up, that would mean an overall turnout of 1.3 million, less than one in five adult residents of the state, impossibly low, even for Georgia.
And that brings us to the poll's surprising Latino results. The total sample was said to be 550, which gives us a theoretical "margin of error" of 4.3%, which in reality means 4.8%, since you have to add a rounding error of up to 0.5%.
But --assuming that the projection of a 7% Latino turnout was based on the number of Latinos the poll encountered-- that would be around 38 persons. So the question isn't what is the margin of error for a poll of 550 but what is the margin of error for a poll of those 38 Latinos. Using the standard formula, that would be around 15%, meaning the supposed Republican advantage is not statistically significant. It might be real. It might not.
Except that statistical science says, when samples get that small, the "margin of error" formula doesn't apply. The results are meaningless -- overwhelmed by statistical noise and the practical difficulties involved in public opinion surveys.
That's why at CNN, where my work included reporting precisely these sorts of numbers through 11 successive election cycles (1990-2010), we had a hard rule not to report cross-tab (subgroup) results of a poll where we had less than 100 interviews for that group. And even then, results had to be very dramatic, with big differences in the numbers, for us to rely on small samples.
Think of it this way. If the WXIA pollsters talked to 38 Latinos, Governor Deal's 40% would be about 15 people, Democrat challenger Jason Carter's 29% would have been 11, and 12 were undecided (reported as 31%). If you were calling 1,000 people, who were the first 20 who answered when you called, and agreed to be interviewed, isn't than significant. But if that is the majority of who you talk to, you have skewed the poll tremendously.
That's especially true when dealing with Latinos. Who was available to answer the phone? What languages are they comfortable with? The overwhelming majority of adult Georgia Latinos are immigrants, whose first language is not English.Was the survey conducted bilingually? Almost certainly not, because otherwise WXIA would have bragged about it. Pollsters rely on mechanisms like asking for the oldest or youngest adult to "randomize" a sample. In Latino households, that won't work.
And the Latino community in Georgia has been the most heavily hit of any state in the nation by Obama's "secure communities" deportation dragnet. It is a community that has been profoundly traumatized. Based on the information the government was forced to hand over thanks to a lawsuit by the Georgia Latino Alliance for Human Rights --with the support of the Georgia ACLU, NDLON and the Immigrant Rights Clinic at New York University School of Law-- I estimate that ICE, the immigration cops, have made some 100,000 arrests in Georgia since Obama was elected, overwhelmingly of Latinos, in a state that officially has less than one million Latinos.
I do not think it is possible under such conditions to do an accurate public opinion survey of this community. There is simply too much fear.
But leaving that aside, I am sure WXIA's figures are, in essence, bogus. The Latino vote would need to be ten times its current size to be even measurable by a poll of the size done on behalf of WXIA. As a news organization, WXIA does not have the competence in polling nor the knowledge of our community to be making claims about how we're likely to vote.
I've gotta ask: dudes, what have you been smoking?
Because even more surprising than our supposed support for these two anti-Latino bigots is the poll's projection that Latinos, who are less than 1.8% of the registered voters in the state, will be 7% of those that go to the polls in November. Assuming every last Latino voter actually showed up, that would mean an overall turnout of 1.3 million, less than one in five adult residents of the state, impossibly low, even for Georgia.
And that brings us to the poll's surprising Latino results. The total sample was said to be 550, which gives us a theoretical "margin of error" of 4.3%, which in reality means 4.8%, since you have to add a rounding error of up to 0.5%.
But --assuming that the projection of a 7% Latino turnout was based on the number of Latinos the poll encountered-- that would be around 38 persons. So the question isn't what is the margin of error for a poll of 550 but what is the margin of error for a poll of those 38 Latinos. Using the standard formula, that would be around 15%, meaning the supposed Republican advantage is not statistically significant. It might be real. It might not.
Except that statistical science says, when samples get that small, the "margin of error" formula doesn't apply. The results are meaningless -- overwhelmed by statistical noise and the practical difficulties involved in public opinion surveys.
That's why at CNN, where my work included reporting precisely these sorts of numbers through 11 successive election cycles (1990-2010), we had a hard rule not to report cross-tab (subgroup) results of a poll where we had less than 100 interviews for that group. And even then, results had to be very dramatic, with big differences in the numbers, for us to rely on small samples.
Think of it this way. If the WXIA pollsters talked to 38 Latinos, Governor Deal's 40% would be about 15 people, Democrat challenger Jason Carter's 29% would have been 11, and 12 were undecided (reported as 31%). If you were calling 1,000 people, who were the first 20 who answered when you called, and agreed to be interviewed, isn't than significant. But if that is the majority of who you talk to, you have skewed the poll tremendously.
That's especially true when dealing with Latinos. Who was available to answer the phone? What languages are they comfortable with? The overwhelming majority of adult Georgia Latinos are immigrants, whose first language is not English.Was the survey conducted bilingually? Almost certainly not, because otherwise WXIA would have bragged about it. Pollsters rely on mechanisms like asking for the oldest or youngest adult to "randomize" a sample. In Latino households, that won't work.
And the Latino community in Georgia has been the most heavily hit of any state in the nation by Obama's "secure communities" deportation dragnet. It is a community that has been profoundly traumatized. Based on the information the government was forced to hand over thanks to a lawsuit by the Georgia Latino Alliance for Human Rights --with the support of the Georgia ACLU, NDLON and the Immigrant Rights Clinic at New York University School of Law-- I estimate that ICE, the immigration cops, have made some 100,000 arrests in Georgia since Obama was elected, overwhelmingly of Latinos, in a state that officially has less than one million Latinos.
I do not think it is possible under such conditions to do an accurate public opinion survey of this community. There is simply too much fear.
But leaving that aside, I am sure WXIA's figures are, in essence, bogus. The Latino vote would need to be ten times its current size to be even measurable by a poll of the size done on behalf of WXIA. As a news organization, WXIA does not have the competence in polling nor the knowledge of our community to be making claims about how we're likely to vote.
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Are none of us spics 'fit to print' in the NY Times?
Today I was at Plaza Fiesta in Atlanta, for the Mexican and Central American Independence Day celebration, when someone approached me about comments I had made a couple of days ago as the co-host (sidekick) on the "Hablemos con Teodoro" radio show on Radio Información 1310 AM.
I had quoted an editorial in the New York Times blasting Obama for his latest betrayal of the Latino community. After dismissing Obama's specious explanation, the Times says, "The real reason ... is that the midterm elections are upon us, and Mr. Obama ... didn’t want to jeopardize Democratic control of the Senate. As for the immigrants ... they were once again seen as safely expendable.
"A political emergency collided with a human one, and the humans lost."
That last line had a really nice ring to it and I had said on air this was especially welcome coming from such a notoriously anti-Latino newspaper as the New York Times. The listener who came up to me wanted to know why I had said the Times was notoriously anti-Latino. The editorial sounded pretty good to her.
Well, first, because while it is true that I may be getting fat and old, the flip side of that coin is that an elephant never forgets. In the 1970s and early 80s, when I lived in New York and read that newspaper religiously, I remember the Times railing time and again against bilingual and bicultural education, such as in a 1975 editorial with the poetic, symbolic headline "Divisive Languages." (Don't bother following the link unless you're already a subscriber: they'll try to hit you for $4 for an editorial that's not worth 4 cents. The title says it all: if you let people keep on speaking languages other than English, slit your wrists. You're heading straight to disaster. Just like Canada. Canada, I tell you!!!)
But, of course, then there's today. The Times's Editorial Board has 18 people on it. There is not a single Latino among them, or if there is, they are completely undercover. Then there are the regular columnists. They have 12; none of us there either. Finally the top editors listed on the Masthead. There are 10 people listed as responsible for the presentation of the news.
That's a total of 40 people. There's not a single Latino that I could find, not even your token Mexican self-hater or right-wing Cuban. Add the 16 corporate/business bigwigs on the masthead, and its still zilch city. Or if there is some Mr. Smith or Mrs. Jones on there who is Latino, why are they and the Times hiding their background?
That is astonishing: New York City is 27.5% Latino, the metro area 24.2%, one out of four. The New York Times doesn't even have one out of 40. Or 56.
You cannot get a result like that without a culture that is profoundly racist, chauvinist and exclusionary. Where people are holding hands thinking they are singing kumbaya without realizing that with the burning crosses, to someone like me it looks just like a Klan meeting.
And it is not just the Times.
I had quoted an editorial in the New York Times blasting Obama for his latest betrayal of the Latino community. After dismissing Obama's specious explanation, the Times says, "The real reason ... is that the midterm elections are upon us, and Mr. Obama ... didn’t want to jeopardize Democratic control of the Senate. As for the immigrants ... they were once again seen as safely expendable.
"A political emergency collided with a human one, and the humans lost."
That last line had a really nice ring to it and I had said on air this was especially welcome coming from such a notoriously anti-Latino newspaper as the New York Times. The listener who came up to me wanted to know why I had said the Times was notoriously anti-Latino. The editorial sounded pretty good to her.
Well, first, because while it is true that I may be getting fat and old, the flip side of that coin is that an elephant never forgets. In the 1970s and early 80s, when I lived in New York and read that newspaper religiously, I remember the Times railing time and again against bilingual and bicultural education, such as in a 1975 editorial with the poetic, symbolic headline "Divisive Languages." (Don't bother following the link unless you're already a subscriber: they'll try to hit you for $4 for an editorial that's not worth 4 cents. The title says it all: if you let people keep on speaking languages other than English, slit your wrists. You're heading straight to disaster. Just like Canada. Canada, I tell you!!!)
But, of course, then there's today. The Times's Editorial Board has 18 people on it. There is not a single Latino among them, or if there is, they are completely undercover. Then there are the regular columnists. They have 12; none of us there either. Finally the top editors listed on the Masthead. There are 10 people listed as responsible for the presentation of the news.
That's a total of 40 people. There's not a single Latino that I could find, not even your token Mexican self-hater or right-wing Cuban. Add the 16 corporate/business bigwigs on the masthead, and its still zilch city. Or if there is some Mr. Smith or Mrs. Jones on there who is Latino, why are they and the Times hiding their background?
That is astonishing: New York City is 27.5% Latino, the metro area 24.2%, one out of four. The New York Times doesn't even have one out of 40. Or 56.
You cannot get a result like that without a culture that is profoundly racist, chauvinist and exclusionary. Where people are holding hands thinking they are singing kumbaya without realizing that with the burning crosses, to someone like me it looks just like a Klan meeting.
And it is not just the Times.
About this blog and Hatuey
Hatuey was a cacique, a leader of the Taínos in the island the Spanish called "Hispaniola" around the time when that clueless adventurer Christopher Columbus stumbled onto Caribbean lands imagining he was all the way to India. But Columbus and those that followed were more interested in raping and looting these lands than in geographic precision.
There were others who resisted, but Hatuey is the one that history remembers. He fled to Cuba, where he warned his tribesmen against the depravity of the invaders. "Here is the God the Spaniards worship," he told them, holding up a basket of gold and jewels. "For these they fight and kill; for these they persecute us and that is why we have to throw them into the sea....
"They tell us, these tyrants, that they adore a God of peace and equality, and yet they usurp our land and make us their slaves. They speak to us of an immortal soul and of their eternal rewards and punishments, and yet they rob our belongings, seduce our women, violate our daughters. Incapable of matching us in valor, these cowards cover themselves with iron that our weapons cannot break."
Hatuey was captured and burned at the stake in Yara on February 2, 1512. His attitude on that day, described by Spanish Friar Bartolomé de las Casas, is why he is remembered as "The First Rebel of the Americas" and the first Cuban.
It is said that Hatuey's ashes led to the character of the Cuban people. Cuba's national day is not independence day, or revolution day, or constitution day but is called, "Día de la Rebeldía Nacional," the Day of National Rebelliousness.
This is the blog of a rebel, someone born on that island that, having spent a lifetime away from it, has not succeeded in purging Hatuey's ashes from his soul.
There were others who resisted, but Hatuey is the one that history remembers. He fled to Cuba, where he warned his tribesmen against the depravity of the invaders. "Here is the God the Spaniards worship," he told them, holding up a basket of gold and jewels. "For these they fight and kill; for these they persecute us and that is why we have to throw them into the sea....
"They tell us, these tyrants, that they adore a God of peace and equality, and yet they usurp our land and make us their slaves. They speak to us of an immortal soul and of their eternal rewards and punishments, and yet they rob our belongings, seduce our women, violate our daughters. Incapable of matching us in valor, these cowards cover themselves with iron that our weapons cannot break."
Hatuey was captured and burned at the stake in Yara on February 2, 1512. His attitude on that day, described by Spanish Friar Bartolomé de las Casas, is why he is remembered as "The First Rebel of the Americas" and the first Cuban.
It is said that Hatuey's ashes led to the character of the Cuban people. Cuba's national day is not independence day, or revolution day, or constitution day but is called, "Día de la Rebeldía Nacional," the Day of National Rebelliousness.
This is the blog of a rebel, someone born on that island that, having spent a lifetime away from it, has not succeeded in purging Hatuey's ashes from his soul.
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